Banking on fewer children: financial intermediation,fertility and economic development

This paper shows that financial intermediation can influence fertility and labor allocation decisions by raising market wages. The increase in wages induces some households to abandon “traditional” labor intensive methods of production managed at the household level and supply labor to “modern” sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children, the labor allocation decision leads to lower national fertility. A panel VAR using financial intermediation, fertility and industrial employment share data in 87 countries is estimated. The empirical results show that the data are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Received: 20 October 1997/Accepted: 31 August 1998     

POLITICAL SELECTION IN CHINA: THE COMPLEMENTARY ROLES OF CONNECTIONS AND PERFORMANCE

Who becomes a top politician in China? We focus on provincial leaders—a pool of candidates for top political office—and examine how their chances of promotion depend on their performance in office and connections with top politicians. Our empirical analysis, based on the curriculum vitae of Chinese politicians, shows that connections and performance are complements in the Chinese political selection process. This complementarity is stronger the younger provincial leaders are relative to their connected top leaders. To provide one plausible interpretation of these empirical findings, we propose a simple theory in which the complementarity arises because connections foster loyalty of junior officials to senior ones, thereby allowing incumbent top politicians to select competent provincial leaders without risking being ousted. Our findings shed some light on why a political system known for patronage can still select competent leaders.     

RAILROADS AND GROWTH IN PRUSSIA

We study the effect of railroad access on urban population growth. Using GIS techniques, we match triennial population data for roughly 1,000 cities in 19th‐century Prussia to georeferenced maps of the German railroad network. We find positive short‐ and long‐term effects of having a station on urban growth for different periods during 1840–1871. Causal effects of (potentially endogenous) railroad access on city growth are identified using propensity score matching, instrumental variables, and fixed‐effects estimation techniques. Our instrument identifies exogenous variation in railroad access by constructing straight‐line corridors between nodes. Counterfactual models using pre‐railroad growth yield no evidence to support the hypothesis that railroads appeared as a consequence of a previous growth spurt.     

《二十年后》隐含作者的真义

欧·亨利《二十年后》在学界一直众说纷纭,无一定论。欧·亨利对于作品中人物究竟持何态度,从隐含作者切入,基于文本细读,深度分析作品,指出隐含作者表面行文温和,实际上却深刻鞭挞了社会黑暗面。真实作者与隐含作者存在一定的偏差,这种偏差缘于个人经历与社会因素。     

Financial inclusion in India: An axiomatic approach

In this paper we first develop an axiomatic measure of financial inclusion. This measure is readily implementable and useful to determine policy priorities to promote financial inclusion. Next, we demonstrate that supply side data on banking services can be usefully employed to measure financial inclusion. Third, we examine the effects of major banking policies on financial inclusion across states in India during 1972–2009, using panel data econometrics techniques. We find that the social-banking policy has played crucial role to foster financial inclusion across states in India during 1977–1990. Thereafter, the move toward pro-market financial sector reform has adversely affected the pace of financial inclusion. This paper identifies geographic penetration of banks and credit availability as two policy targets to foster financial inclusion in India.     

And yet they Co-move! Public capital and productivity in OECD

In this paper, we add to the debate on the public capital–productivity link by applying very recent developments in the panel time series literature that take into account cross sectional correlation in non-stationary panels. In particular, we evaluate the productive effect of public capital by estimating various production functions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1975–2002. Our results suggest that public capital has a positive long run impact on output, with elasticities that range between 0.05 and 0.15, depending on model specification. These findings are robust to the existence of spillover effects from public capital investments in other countries and to the inclusion of other productivity determinants, like human capital, the stock of patents and R&D capital. Finally, we do not find any important effect of public capital on GDP in the short run: this suggests that public infrastructure investments might not be a powerful countercyclical policy instrument.     

The impact of democracy and press freedom on corruption: Conditionality matters

This paper empirically analyzes the joint impact of democracy and press freedom on corruption. Based in the theoretical literature, we argue that both institutional features are complements rather than substitutes in controlling corruption. Our regressions are based on a cross section of 170 countries covering the period from 2005 to 2010 as well as on panel evidence for 175 countries from 1996 to 2010. The results show that democratic elections only work in controlling corruption, if there is a certain degree of press freedom in a country, vice versa. Our policy implication is that democratic reforms are more effective, if they are accompanied by institutional reforms strengthening the monitoring of politicians.     

World Development and the Restructuring of the Industrial Economies

This paper reports on the joint SPM/CRANEC Catholic University of Milan symposium on “World Development and the Restructuring of Industrial Economies” held at Bellagio, Lake Como, Italy during the week of 10–15 September 1979. The symposium was organized to discuss the adjustments required by the industrialized economies when adapting to the changes inherent in present world development trends, as well as to help define national and international policy measures that might be used to facilitate the restructuring process. This report reviews the key issues, alternative strategies for restructuring, and policy measures for restructuring discussed at the symposium. It also offers some conclusions based on the results of the symposium.     

The role of deliberate and experiential learning in developing capabilities: Insights from technology licensing

We discuss the interdependencies between deliberate and experiential learning in developing a dynamic technology licensing capability, which was termed ‘desorptive capacity’ in earlier conceptual work. We use new three-year lagged data from two surveys of 79 firms to examine the role of dedicated licensing employees and prior licensing experience in developing firms’ sensing, seizing, and transforming capacities in technology out-licensing. The findings emphasize capabilities’ multidimensionality and critical trade-offs due to interdependencies between deliberate and experiential learning in developing capabilities. Besides interdependencies with experiential learning, deliberate learning strengthens sensing and seizing capacity, but it negatively affects transforming capacity based on inertia.     

A review of RFID technology and its managerial applications in different industries

Radio frequency identification (RFID) is an emerging technology that is increasingly being used in supply chain management. RFID technology plays an important role in supporting logistics and supply chain processes because of their ability to identify, trace and track information throughout the supply chain. The technology can provide suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers precise real time information about the products. This accurate knowledge of the inventory would result in lower labor cost, simplified business processes and improved supply chain efficiency. If properly used, it has the potential to cut ordering lead time and cost on inventory control, increase the accuracy of inventory information, help avoid stockouts and boost the number of inventory turns. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current state of RFID applications in different industries and its impact on business operations. We provide extensive literature survey and develop a framework for future research areas in this field.